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EVE Online

How does Eve Market Deals work?

An Eve Market Deal (EMD) is any Eve Online item or bulk items selling for less than the highest buyer where there is potential profit. To find these deals, EMD performs the following every thirty minutes:

  • Download and ingest Eve Online market data by each region
  • Analyze market data by matching each sell order to potential buy orders and determine if there is at least 1M ISK profit after taxes assuming best Accounting and Brokerage Skills.
  • Publish market data that can be consumed by both the Android and web app, and send notifications to capsuleers.

Download and Ingest Market Data

Using ESI, for each region in Eve Online, download all the market data for that region while indexing each order to an Elasticsearch instance. On average this takes about 20 minutes.

Unfortunately, data that was ingested early on is already stale by the time we get to the next analysis step. Thus, EMD ingests the major trade hubs, like Jita, Amarr, Rens, and Hek last to ensure that we at least have recent data when comparing orders. Another challenge is that orders found at the major trade hubs don’t last long but also potentially the bests deals.

Analyze Market Data

There are about 1.2 million market orders on average across New Eden, and about 14 thousand different items available on the market. For each item’s market orders, EMD searches for types that have a lower selling price than the highest buy order. If the difference is more than the selling price, it is a potentially profitable item. On average, there are about 2600 potentially profitable types on the market.

To get the best deals, EMD analyzes 6 different markets:

  • High, Low, and Null Security without Citadels
  • High, Low, and Null Security with some Citadels that are public and have known names.

For high sec market orders, EMD checks the route between each sell and buy order’s system, if it not secure, meaning at some point a capsuleer would need to travel into low or null security space, then the market order is placed in low or null security markets based on the security of the system originating the orders.

Publish Eve Market Deals

Based on this analysis, EMD then creates six corresponding csv files that are published on https://evemarketdeals.com and is also available to Eve Market Deals Android application. Capsuleers can either utilize the web or Android to filter deals to find deals that best suite their interest.

To help determine if a deal is right for them, EMD scores each deal and also provides a list of public market orders for that type spanning across New Eden.

Eve Market Deals Score

The scoring algorithm is completely arbitrary but the goal is to find orders sold below-average price when there are average priced buy orders available at major trade hubs. Another purpose for the scoring system was to avoid less obvious scams.

The EMD scoring algorithm written in python to determine the score of a given deal

Starting from a score of 2, penalize deals where the sell orders are sparse. Sparse sell orders are a potential avenue for trading scams because its difficult to calculate a reasonable average price for the deal, and also because a scammer can set up buy orders with a minimum volume greater than items available on the market.

Trying to find a buyer for an item? Chances are if there are any available buy orders, there will be orders available in Jita. Thus, we reward buy orders originating from Jita. However, if there is a good deal selling from Jita to some obscure system, its possible by the time item is purchased, and hauled to that system, that order will be long gone. We penalize orders selling from Jita in that case.

Following similar reasoning, EMD penalizes sell orders that originate from major trade hubs and, rewards orders destined for major trade hubs. Furthermore, EMD rewards items sold outside of the major trade hubs. Lastly, for really big deals, we just flat out mark it as a bad deal because they are risky even if it’s a good deal.

An example of an awesome deal.

Top deals won’t last long and with this app, hopefully, even obscure deals will be discovered and traded earning ISK.

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